China October exports record highest jump in 19 months, imports decline

China’s exports in October rose at their fastest pace in 19 months, sharply beating analysts’ estimates, according to data from the country’s customs agency on Thursday.

Exports rose by 12.7% year on year to $309.06 billion in October — the highest jump since March 2023 when they rose 14.8%, according to LSEG data. That compares with 2.4% growth in September and 8.7% in August.

Analysts had pegged exports growth at 5.2% year on year in October, according to a Reuters poll.

Imports, however, fell by a more-than-expected 2.3% in October, customs data showed. That compares with a modest growth of 0.3% in September and 0.5% in August. Analysts had forecast a decline of 1.5% in October exports, according to a Reuters poll.

“The better-than-expected export figures can be attributed to delayed shipments in October due to improved weather conditions, ongoing price discounts to capture market share, and the traditional peak season leading up to Christmas,” Bruce Pang, chief economist of Greater China at JLL told CNBC.

The world’s second-largest economy has been grappling with weakening domestic consumption and a protracted property crisis, with exports being a rare bright spot.

China’s growing reliance on exports comes amid rising trade tensions with the U.S. and European Union amid stiff tariffs on Chinese electric cars — exports of cars still rose 11% on year last month — and other goods.

In October, China’s exports to the U.S. rose 8.1% while imports picked up 6.6% from a year ago, according to a CNBC calculation of official data.

China’s exports to the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nation increased 12.7% and 15.8% on year, respectively. Imports from the two regions fell over 6%.

China’s exports to BRICS partner Russia surged nearly 27% on year while imports dropped 2.8%.

Export growth in the beginning of next year is expected to continue to “perform quite well year-on-year” as companies rush to ship out goods before a potential trade war with the U.S. kicks in, Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” after the data release on Thursday.

Donald Trump’s victory in U.S. elections has raised concerns about higher tariffs, particularly on Chinese exports.

“In 2025, rising protectionism by the US and Europe would crimp the growth of Chinese exports. It is therefore important that fiscal stimulus adequately boosts domestic demand,” said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank.

Chinese officials has unveiled a flurry of stimulus measures since late September, including interest rate cuts, lower cash reserve requirements at banks and loosened property purchase rules, in a bid to revive the ailing economy.

In October, China’s factory activity expanded for the first time since April, with the official purchasing managers’ index coming in at 50.1, beating September’s 49.8 and analysts’ estimate of 49.9.

China’s parliament standing committee meeting is underway, with expectations that it will announce details about further fiscal stimulus when it concludes on Friday.