China’s retail sales and industrial data miss expectations in August

BEIJING — China’s retail sales, industrial production and urban investment in August all grew slower than expected, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Saturday.

Retail sales rose by 2.1% in August from a year ago, missing expectations of 2.5% growth among economists polled by Reuters. That was also slower than the 2.7% increase in July.

Online sales of physical goods rose by just under 1% in August from a year ago, according to CNBC calculations of official data.

Industrial production rose by 4.5% in August from a year ago, lagging the 4.8% growth forecast by Reuters. That also marked a slowdown from a 5.1% rise in July.

Despite the miss, industrial production still grew faster than retail sales, “reflecting the structural imbalance imbedded in China’s economy, with stronger supply and weaker demand,” said Darius Tang, associate director, corporates, at Fitch Bohua.

The firm expects the Chinese government will likely announce more, gradual stimulus in the fourth quarter to support consumption and real estate, Tang said.

Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the January to August period, slower than the forecast of 3.5% growth.

The urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, an uptick from 5.2% in July.

Among fixed asset investment, infrastructure and manufacturing slowed in growth on a year-to-date basis in August, compared to July. Investment in real estate fell by 10.2% for the year through August, the same pace of decline as of July.

National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Liu Aihua attributed the uptick in unemployment to the impact of graduation season. But she said that stabilizing employment requires more work.

This year, the statistics bureau has been releasing the unemployment rate for people ages 16 to 24 who aren’t in school a few days after the wider jobless release. The youth unemployment rate in July was 17.1%.

“We should be aware that the adverse impacts arising from the changes in the external environment are increasing,” the bureau said in an English-language statement. A “sustained economic recovery is still confronted with multiple difficulties and challenges.”

This weekend, Saturday is a working day in China in exchange for a holiday on Monday. The country is set to celebrate the Mid-Autumn Festival, also known as the Mooncake Festival, from Sunday to Tuesday. The next and final major public holiday in China this year falls in early October.

Growth in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed after a disappointing recovery from Covid-19 lockdowns. Policymakers have yet to announce large-scale stimulus, while acknowledging that domestic demand is insufficient.

Other data released in the last week has underscored persistent weakness in consumption.

Imports rose by just 0.5% in August from a year ago, customs data showed, missing expectations. Exports rose by 8.7%, beating expectations.

Beijing’s consumer price index for August also disappointed analysts’ expectations with an increase of 0.6% from a year ago.